IDC Predicts Most Enterprises Will Run a Majority of Their Business Processes AI-first by 2029

IDC predicts that by 2029, 60% of Global 2000 (G2000) enterprises will run most of their business processes AI-first. The prediction is predicated upon operations and decisions being left to AI agents. IDC also predicts that by 2028, 70% of G2000 enterprises will be able to continuously verify decisions their AI agents are making, up from 14% today.

The study features 250 predictions across 25 research areas, including AI factories, enterprise software, quantum computing, financial services, healthcare and government. IDC analysts in each area draws on the company’s proprietary research to identify the 10 developments that will shape that area, with projected timing and business impact. Each of the 25 sets of predictions was produced independently. Compared side by side, they reached the same conclusion: AI is rewriting every layer of enterprise IT at once, but the forces involved are altering priorities at different speeds. IDC sorted those forces by the situational window each one presents: some windows are closing; others are opening and yet a third category is just beginning to emerge.

“Nearly every tech leader I talk to wants to know whether they are behind on AI,” said Meredith Whalen, Chief Research & Data Intelligence Officer at IDC. “The answer depends on the window. Some windows are closing, and more spending will not reopen them. Others are still open, but the time to shape them is shrinking. In every case, the winners will be the organizations that verify what each agent does as fast as they deploy it.”

By 2028, enterprises will shift 60% of AI workloads from proprietary LLMs toward open-source models and leverage model routing strategies to reduce costs and hedge against vendor lock-in, according to IDC. Enterprises that make those moves quickly will be the first to counter the agent inference overspend.

IDC predicts 60% of enterprises will fail to convert their data into measurable business value by 2028, as data volumes outpace their ability to define and govern the value of that data.

IDC predicts G2000 enterprises without kill switches (controls that can shut down a misbehaving agent) for AI agents in production by 2028 will see 25% higher liability insurance premiums and twice as many material audit findings.

Software contracts are being rewritten around agents. By 2028, 75% of G2000 vendor contracts will include liability clauses for agent-initiated actions, IDC predicts, making their absence a red flag in vendor selection.

A new job category is being created to supervise machines. By 2029, IDC predicts G2000 enterprises will shift 30% of entry- and mid-level execution roles toward agent supervision and orchestration.10 In IDC’s Future of Work Survey, 49% of midmarket organizations (1,000 to 4,999 employees) expect entry-level headcount to grow over the next 18 months, and 17% expect a decline.

Eight research areas, including energy, manufacturing, retail and connectivity, describe AI moving into physical operations. By 2030, IDC predicts 40% of electric utilities will use graduated authority frameworks that let AI agents carry out selected routine grid-control actions, reducing operator intervention by 25%.

The research also shows that 1,146 business leaders, 46% of midmarket organizations (1,000 to 4,999 employees) have deployed agentic AI across several departments, ahead of 40% of enterprises (5,000 or more employees). Only 31% of those midmarket organizations have a fully operational AI center of excellence to oversee AI governance, compared with 43% of enterprises.

Channel Impact^®
IDC’s 250 predictions across 25 research areas show which parts of the AI-driven rewrite of enterprise IT that tech leaders and channel partners can still influence.