Canalys: Global Smartphone Market Flattens in Q1

The worldwide smartphone market grew 1% year on year in Q1 2025, according to the latest research from Canalys. The modest growth came amid persistent macroeconomic headwinds, cautious consumer sentiment and delayed channel inventory digestion. Samsung took the global lead with a 20% market share, while Apple followed closely with an 18% share.

“The overall environment proved to be more volatile than anticipated in Q1 2025, while the global market continued its recovery,” said Amber Liu, Research Manager at Canalys. “Following a strong finish to 2024, vendors pushed high inventory volumes into channels to gain share. But slower-than-expected sell-through extended inventory cycles, dampening sell-in momentum in early 2025. Unlike 2024’s recovery, which was driven by a post-pandemic upgrade cycle and mass-market affordability, this year’s rebound is proving more fragile.

“Escalating global trade tensions are creating fresh uncertainties for smartphone vendors in 2025,” continued Liu. “In the US, vendors such as Apple, Samsung and Lenovo are already grappling with weaker domestic demand and the looming threat of increased operational costs due to impending tariffs. In response, Apple front-loaded shipments in early April, pulling forward Q2 inventory to mitigate potential cost hikes. Globally, while the full scope and timing of the new tariffs remain uncertain, vendors are bracing for higher component prices and softer export demand in affected markets. To reduce exposure, vendors and supply chain partners are accelerating diversification strategies, shifting production bases, reassessing sourcing models and optimizing logistics. These dynamics are expected to disrupt profitability and extend planning cycles throughout the worldwide smartphone industry in 2025.”

“Cautious consumer sentiment driven by global macroeconomic challenges muted the typical seasonal uplift in Q1,” said Sanyam Chaurasia, Senior Analyst at Canalys. “Even festive periods in key markets, such as Ramadan, delivered softer demand than expected. In response to a more gradual recovery in volume, vendors are prioritizing profitability while remaining active and flexible with market investments. Tactics include dynamic channel incentive schemes to encourage sell-in, collaborations with distributors to expand financing in emerging markets and agile channel pricing strategies to strike a balance between overall profitability and price competitiveness.”

Canalys’ worldwide Smartphone Analysis service provides a country-level view of shipment estimates, including quarterly market share data, historical data tracking, and analysis of storage, processors, memory, cameras and many other specs. Canalys-Omdia clients can get more details through a report entitled, “Omdia – Assessing the Impact of US Tariffs.”

Channel Impact^®
The mobile phone data may be viewed as a harbinger for what is to come in other technology product categories, as well.