Omdia: US PC shipments Mark Steepest Decline Since 2023

The latest research from Omdia shows that US PC shipments (excluding tablets) fell 7.0% year-over-year in Q1 2026 to 15.8 million units; the largest annual decline since Q3 2023.

The downturn is attributed to component supply constraints and cost pressures from surging PC memory and storage prices, compounded by a demand hangover following the Windows 11 refresh cycle, which had exhausted much of the near-term commercial pipeline.

With DRAM and NAND supply increasingly diverted to AI server applications, rising component costs are eroding vendor margins on entry-level devices, making low-priced PCs increasingly unviable, according to Omdia. Shipments of PCs priced under $500 declined 18.7% year-on-year in the quarter. Omdia expects industry-wide declines to continue throughout the remainder of 2026 as supply tightness persists, with full-year US PC shipments forecast to decline 14.4% compared to 2025.

“The impact of component supply constraints on PC shipments materialized in the US market in the first quarter of 2026,” said Scott Braverman, Senior Analyst at Omdia. “The consumer segment declined 9.5% year-over-year, worse than the overall market, as many consumers delayed purchase decisions amid higher price tags and challenging economic conditions. Business shipments declined by just 5.0% year-over-year, supported by remaining Windows 11 refresh activity and inventory purchases ahead of further price increases.”

While average selling prices rose just 4% year-on-year in Q1 2026, Omdia expects growth to reach 12% in Q2 and exceed 12% in the second half of 2026 as supply-side headwinds continue to materialize. Business PC ASPs are expected to grow 11% in 2026, with 10% ASP increases in the consumer and government segments. Education ASPs are expected to remain flat as this cost-conscious segment delays PC refreshes due to rapid pricing increases.

Vendor performance varied significantly in Q1 2026, reflecting difference in segment exposure and pricing dynamics. HP’s 21.6% decline in shipments was the steepest drop among major providers and resulted in HP losing its top spot in the US in Q1 2026. Dell captured the lead with a 25.0% share, posting 1.1% growth despite overall market contraction, while Lenovo also achieved growth of 1.2% to reach 20.0% of the market.

Channel Impact^®
Partners should note that, according to Omdia’s May forecast, the first half of 2026 is likely to be the stronger period for business PC demand. The component cost environment is expected to keep entry-level prices elevated through 2027, suppressing consumer demand.