Canalys Projects Minimal Growth for US PC Market Amid Tariff Concerns

PC shipments (excluding tablets) to the United States grew 6% year on year to 17.7 million units in Q4 2024, driven by strong performance in the commercial segment, according to Canalys. However, the market researcher also expects the US PC market to face challenges amid volatile trade policies and potentially higher prices. Total PC shipments to the US are expected to fall just shy of 2% growth in both 2025 and 2026 with volumes hovering between 70 to 72 million units each year.

The commercial segment was the strongest-performing segment in the second half of 2024, driven heavily by Windows 10 end-of-service demand. As Microsoft increases its efforts to boost awareness around the October 2025 deadline, businesses are stepping up investments in PC fleet refreshes. This trend is set to continue throughout this year and even into 2026, given the scale of older Windows 10 devices that remain present in the installed base.

While the US PC market will continue to be bolstered by the Windows refresh, Canalys sees new headwinds in the form of tariffs and associated inflation.

“President Trump’s ongoing trade war with Canada, Mexico and China has had swift negative repercussions for the stock market and pushed the US GDP growth forecast for Q1 2025 into negative territory,” said Canalys Analyst Greg Davis. “In addition to the direct impact of tariffs, the stop-start nature of announcements and delays have cast uncertainty around pricing for consumer electronics this year. The tariffs have prompted mitigating actions across the PC industry, with vendors and channel partners engaging in some recent stockpiling of devices.” A Canalys poll of US channel partners revealed that 50% held five weeks or more of PC inventory in January 2025, up from 29% in November 2024.

“The new policies have also been a catalyst for positive developments, with TSMC and Apple recently announcing major manufacturing investments in the US,” added Davis. “Combined, the two companies announced intentions to invest US$665 billion in production facilities, R&D, training and more. However, it will be some time before the benefits from these investments materialize.”

Channel Impact^®
Canalys’ PC Analysis service provides quarterly updated shipment data to help with accurate market sizing, competitive analysis and identifying growth opportunities in the market.