Global semiconductor revenue is projected to decline 3.6% in 2023, according to the latest forecast from Gartner. Global semiconductor revenue is forecast to total $596 billion in 2023, down from the previous forecast of $623 billion. In 2022, the market is on pace to grow 4% and total $618 billion.
“The short-term outlook for semiconductor revenue has worsened,” said Richard Gordon, Practice Vice President at Gartner. “Rapid deterioration in the global economy and weakening consumer demand will negatively impact the semiconductor market in 2023.”
Currently, the semiconductor market is polarized between the consumer-driven markets and enterprise-driven markets, according to Gartner. Weakness in the consumer-driven markets is being driven largely by the decline in disposable income caused by rising inflation and interest rates, but also by the reprioritization of consumer discretionary spending to other areas such as travel, leisure, and entertainment, which are having a negative knock-on effect on technology purchases.
On the other hand, the enterprise-driven markets, such as enterprise networking, enterprise compute, industrial, medical, and commercial transportation, have, so far, been relatively resilient despite looming macro-economic slowdown and geopolitical concerns.
“The relative strength in the enterprise-driven markets comes from strategic investments by corporations that are looking to strengthen their infrastructure to continue supporting their work from home workforce, business expansion plans and ongoing digitalization strategies,” said Gordon.
The worsening economic outlook is negatively impacting smartphone, PC and consumer electronics production which is positioning the DRAM market for oversupply for the remainder of 2022 and the first three quarters of 2023. Gartner analysts foresee DRAM revenue to decrease 2.6% to reach $90.5 billion in 2022 and will further decline 18% in 2023, to total $74.2 billion.
“While the deterioration in the macroeconomic environment will weaken consumer demand, we expect relatively better semiconductor consumption from business investments. Consequently, markets such as industrial, telecom infrastructure and data center will be less impacted by consumer sentiment and spending in the short term,” added Gordon.
Gartner clients can read more in “Forecast Analysis: Semiconductors and Electronics Worldwide.”
Oversupply appears tied to worsening economic conditions.