Monday Morning Impact – December 22
IDC: Worldwide IT Market on Course for Strongest Performance Since 1996
Worldwide spending on Information Technology (hardware, software and IT services) is on course to post an increase of 14% in 2025, according to IDC. The Needham, Massachusetts-based market researcher says the trend represents the fastest year of growth since 1996 when the launch of Windows 95, expanding PC usage and Internet adoption were the primary drivers of IT spending. Some 30 years later, the emergence of a massive AI infrastructure investment wave is driving another supercycle of tech spending around the world, with IT spending set to reach $4.25 trillion this year. Total ICT spending (which includes telecom and business services, in addition to IT spending) is expected to reach almost $7 trillion this year.
In the latest version of IDC’s monthly Worldwide Black Book, this year’s IT spending forecast was increased for a 7th consecutive month in November, reflecting continued over-performance and aggressive investments by service providers in AI infrastructure. The forecast increase also reflected strong enterprise software spending, with many organizations continuing with digital transformation and cloud migration projects. Software spending is now expected to increase by 14% this year, with AI deployments adding to investments in security, optimization and analytics.
“AI is the headline of IT market performance in 2025, but most of the actual AI investment this year is concentrated in service provider infrastructure,” said Stephen Minton, Group Vice President at IDC. “This AI investment is partly supported by enterprise spending on core IT products and services, which make up the strong revenue streams of the service providers investing heavily in AI deployment. In turn, this AI investment is supporting economic growth and stability, which in turn is supporting the ability of businesses to maintain their investments in cloud services and enterprise software. As a result, we’re currently experiencing a virtuous cycle of tech-driven macroeconomic growth.”
IT spending increased by 16% in the first quarter or 2025, partly due to front-loading of PC shipments ahead of anticipated tariffs in Q2, and which represented the fastest quarterly IT market growth in 29 years. While service providers are driving some of this IT market growth, enterprise IT spending increased by 11% in Q1 and 10% in Q2. Meanwhile, service provider spending on datacenter infrastructure (server/storage and network equipment) is set to post an increase of 86% in 2025, reaching almost half a trillion dollars this year.
IDC forecasts that IT spending will increase by 10% in 2026, slower than 2025 but still representing one of the strongest years for the industry since the 1990s.
“There are headwinds and downside risks in the 2026 outlook, including an expected memory component shortage which may drive up PC prices next year,” added Minton. “Technology demand has been resilient this year in the face of uncertainty around tariffs and a sluggish global economy, but our baseline forecast calls for a stable economy, supported in part by ongoing AI investment. Even in a moderate recession, most IT spending would continue. The likelihood of a ‘perfect storm’ similar to the IT market crash of 2001 remains low.”
Channel Impact®
While there is much speculation about how and when this cycle may unwind, there is so far no evidence of any slowdown taking hold, and surveys continue to indicate that most businesses plan to increase IT budgets again in 2026, despite lingering anxiety around the overall economy.
Omdia: US PC Shipments See 1% Annual Drop
The latest research from Omdia shows that PC shipments (excluding tablets) to the United States fell 1% year-on-year in Q3 2025 to 17.7 million units, marking the second consecutive quarter of decline. Despite noticeable downward macroeconomic pressures, the consumer segment grew 8% in the quarter to 7.6 million units. The commercial segment was broadly stable, with shipments declining by just under 1%, while the education and government segments together saw a sharper 23% drop in Q3. Even with two consecutive quarters of overall decline, Omdia’s outlook for the holiday season remains positive and the US PC market is still expected to grow in 2025, with full-year shipments forecast to increase by 4%.
“The education and government segments have both moved into a pattern of continual decline after a strong start to the year in Q1,” said Greg Davis, Analyst at Omdia. “There are a few drivers behind this. First, government funding for both schools and government agencies has been reduced. The United States has seen record layoffs in these areas in 2025, so it is not surprising that technology spending is also falling. Second, and less immediately visible, is the unwinding of elevated inventory levels that were built up earlier in the year to soften the impact of tariffs.”
“As these excess inventories are cleared, creating room for new shipments, we expect the rate of decline to begin to moderate, especially in the commercial segment where the contraction has been less severe,” added Davis. “The ongoing transition from Windows 10 to Windows 11 should provide additional support to commercial demand and help this segment return to growth in Q4.
“The consumer segment has been a bright star for the US PC market in 2025, with growth recorded in each of the first three quarters,” Davis added. “Q3 delivered the strongest performance so far, with consumer shipments rising 8% year-on-year. However, recent reports show a sharp deterioration in US consumer sentiment. Tariffs and inflation continue to put upward pressure on prices, interest rates remain elevated, and unemployment, credit card debt, and loan delinquencies are all increasing.”
“In light of these macroeconomic trends, Omdia forecasts that the consumer PC segment will see an annual decline in Q4 2025. Even so, 2025 as a whole is still projected to be a growth year for the US PC market, and we expect it to finish the year in a stronger position than in the previous two quarters,” Davis concluded.
Channel Impact®
A recent Omdia poll also indicates that commercial channel partners across all global regions now primarily expect inventory levels to decrease in Q4 2025.
AppDirect to Acquire Tackle.io to Support B2B Subscription Commerce
AppDirect, a San Francisco based company with a B2B subscription platform, has signed an agreement to acquire Tackle, which offers a cloud go-to-market platform that spans AWS, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud and other leading marketplaces.
The Tackle platform enables integrated billing, cloud co-sell programs, and cloud buyer intent data that enable ISVs to become transactable across multiple clouds. Through this application, AppDirect plans to offer a turnkey solution for hyperscaler marketplace listings, deep co-sell automations with cloud alliance teams, and unified commerce management across all core routes to market.
“Our vision is to be the number one subscription commerce platform for buying, selling, and managing technology,” said Nicolas Desmarais, Chairman and CEO of AppDirect. “With the addition of Tackle, we’re delivering on that promise—empowering our providers with turnkey cloud distribution, native billing, and unified analytics for every go-to-market channel, all in one place.”
Channel Impact®
The combined platform is expected to provide access and integration to distribute and manage products through marketplaces globally.
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