Monday Morning Impact – October 27
Gartner Predicts Market Correction for Agentic AI
The current supply of agentic AI models, platforms and products far exceeds demand, which will result in consolidation and market correction, according to Gartner, Inc.
Gartner analysts anticipate that agentic AI markets will consolidate in the short term as hype and fear of missing out (FOMO) give way to fundamental economics. In this AI vendor race, Gartner believes the losers of consolidation will be undifferentiated AI companies and their investors. The winners will be capital-rich incumbents with the resources to acquire promising technologies and talent.
The mass proliferation of AI providers launching agentic models, agentic-integrated platforms and other agent-infused products far exceeds the present demand, according to the research.
“While we see early signs of market correction and consolidation, product leaders should recognize this as a regular part of the product life cycle, not a sign of inevitable economic crisis,” said Will Sommer, Senior Director Analyst at Gartner. “Over the longer term, consolidation will enable industry leaders to develop agentic products that meet the technical and business requirements of customers who are presently struggling to adopt AI agents.”
Similar to other corrections in energy, telecommunications, and the dot-coms, Gartner believes that product leaders should view this stage of the agentic AI market as a transition period in which business models are forced to calibrate to transformational technologies.
“The impending agentic AI market correction is distinct from speculative bubbles fueled by systemic financial engineering, fraud or policy,” Sommer said. “At this point, the underlying product, agentic AI, is sound, and the current market correction, where markets rationalize and consolidate, is a regular part of the product life cycle.
“However, a ‘speculative bubble’ could still form if investment becomes detached from agentic AI’s intrinsic potential to deliver tangible and commensurate economic value.”
Large tech companies have already been acquiring smaller, specialized AI firms, signaling the start of the market correction phase. With this consolidation will come benefits of scale and vertical integration.
“Large providers will establish expansive, integrated ecosystems that significantly improve agentic performance, leading to more reliable products targeted at specific business outcomes,” said Sommer. “Domain-specific language models, which provide superior value and performance in specialized applications, represent one such innovation.”
Gartner clients can read more in the report, “Tech FutureSight: An AI Market Correction Is Imminent; It Won’t Be the Last.”
Channel Impact®
These evolutions, paired with changing consumer habits, skills and processes, are expected to facilitate the mass adoption of agentic products.
Omdia: Hyperscaler Cloud Marketplace Sales to hit $163 billion by 2030
New research from London-based Omdia has revealed that enterprise software sales through hyperscaler cloud marketplaces – led by AWS, Microsoft, and Google Cloud – are projected to surge from $30 billion in 2024 to $163 billion by 2030.
This growth reflects increasing enterprise adoption of marketplace procurement and a sharp rise in agentic AI sales. Omdia forecasts a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29.1% from 2025 to 2030, as vendors across the IT industry – from large global software vendors to ISV startups – increasingly embrace hyperscaler marketplaces as a primary route to market.
A key driver of this market is the continued growth of upfront multi-year cloud commitments by enterprise customers, according to Omdia. Currently, there are estimated to be close to $470 billion in cloud commitments across AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud, a proportion of which customers can spend on third-party marketplace purchases. The accelerating pace of this spend is demonstrated by the nearly $30 billion of new commitments added in Q2 2025 alone. Customers are moving from opportunistically using marketplace purchases to more strategic marketplace procurement, negotiating cloud commitments to include budget for a broader set of vendor products that align with their cloud adoption strategies.
The report also says that channel partners continue to adapt to this new procurement method rather than being displaced by it, supported by partner private offers and distributor models from all three of the major hyperscalers. By 2030, Omdia predicts that partners will facilitate nearly 60% of all marketplace transactions helping customers manage their commitments, purchase across multiple cloud marketplaces, and provide expertise and support across the full customer lifecycle. Beyond this, in the agentic age, partners are developing their own AI offerings and platforms, enabling them to capture a growing share of the billions of dollars transacted through these marketplaces.
Three technology categories are expected to account for 63% of total spending via marketplaces: Infrastructure Software ($10.5 billion), DevOps ($9.1 billion), and Business Applications ($9.1 billion).
Microtransactions and the continued growth of multi-agent protocols will drive a total spend of $24.4 billion on the back of a 37% CAGR. Cybersecurity represents another high-growth area, projected to reach $31 billion by 2030 with a 31% CAGR, as integrated security platforms become essential, creating additional opportunities for cybersecurity vendors and their partner ecosystems.
“Hyperscaler marketplaces continue to see rapid momentum as a route to market for vendors across the technology industry. A small but growing number of ISVs are now reaching – and exceeding – $1 billion of annual sales through AWS, Google Cloud Marketplace and Microsoft Azure Marketplace, as they activate both partners and distributors to reach a broader set of cloud customers and drive an increasing share of sales. Agentic AI will be one of the fastest-growing categories through marketplaces in the next five years. The hyperscalers are competing hard to win the race as a channel for agentic AI through their agent marketplaces, because this accounts for an ever-greater proportion of cloud consumption,” said Alastair Edwards, Chief Analyst at Omdia.
Channel Impact®
As enterprises advance their cloud maturity, the AI marketplace presents tremendous opportunities, particularly through agentic AI.
Kaseya Acquires Leading AI-Powered Email Security Provider, Inky
Kaseya, a Miami-based provider of IT and security management software, has acquired Inky, which offers generative-AI-based email security for MSPs and SMBs.
Inky’s email protection combines generative AI, behavioral analysis, and real-time user coaching to derail phishing and impersonation attacks by alerting users to potential risks including conversation hijacking and QR-code phishing.
INKY will be available as a stand-alone product and included as part of Kaseya 365 User. More details regarding the acquisition are available here. Terms of the acquisition were not disclosed.
Channel Impact®
The acquisition strengthens Kaseya’s cybersecurity platform and advances Kaseya 365 User with AI-driven email protection.
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